TRHL Owners,

Series 07 has been completed.

Results not submitted:
Outlaws @ Canons (*)
Juha Widings @ Stogies

(*) - Backup results submitted
(**) - Notified in advance

Automatic farmings due to overuse: None

Transactions: None

Injuries (> 3 days):
4/22 MUN Bailey,H 16
4/22 ALS Medina 5
4/24 HAV Nova 47 (Holy shit!)

MP Issues: None that I saw.

Series 08 league file has been posted and the League File link on the website has been updated. Here's the link:
[www.trhl.org]

MPs ready for Series 08: FireDogs, Sledgehammers, Clowns

Visiting team MP deadline is Friday, April 4th, 11 PM EDT. Series results are due Sunday, April 6th, 11 PM EDT.

Aces ready to go, have computer manager select all

MP is fine.

Pitchers are in order: Ohlendorf, Jordan, Porcello

Lineups:

vs. Price, Gonzalez: Lineup #1 vs. LHP
vs. Teheran: Lineup #5 vs. RHP dramatic
vs. Kluber: Lineup #2 vs. RHP.

whitecaps take two of three at alston

oops here's file

Marauders' bullpen coughs up 6 runs over 3 innings in the finale as the Pirates take 2 of 3.

Outlaws remain red hot and continue to catch every possible break as evidenced by Mazzaro escaping a bases loaded no out jam in the 9th of the 3rd game of this series, which was followed up by a Lucroy walk-off HR to hand Koji Uehara his 3rd blown save and first loss of the season.

Unbelievable.

How can this effing game give Uehara 3 BS in 3 weeks, with his stats!?!?

Topes take two of three from aces.

DMB is treating Joe Nathan the same way in both the TRHL and LBBL. Very frustrating.

Game 1: Quintana brings his C-game, as the Fire Dogs smack him around, with Werth, Napoli, and Cozart all hitting homers in a 7-3 Fire Dogs victory. For the Glovers, Callaspo gets five hits, all singles. The rest of the Glovers get 3.

Game 2: Strasburg throws a complete game shutout. 2 hits, 10 K, 28 batter faced, and 93 pitches, and perfect through five. Choo goes 3 for 3, and drives in all four runs in a 4-0 victory for the Glovers.

Game 3: Harang shuts down the Glovers through 7.2, before the bullpen takes over and finishes the job. The Fire Dogs smack around Delgado, on the way to an 8-0 win, and the series victory.

Greg Tamer Wrote:
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> DMB is treating Joe Nathan the same way in both
> the TRHL and LBBL. Very frustrating.

Is this a known feature/bug? Does DMB randomly choose players to destroy?

I mean Uehara has a 147/173/193 line vs. RHB, and 115/153/185 vs. LHB. It should be virtually impossible to put together a rally against him.

Uehara blew 3 saves, allowed 7 of 30 inherited runners to score, and allowed 5 HR including one of Craig Gentry's 4 career HR in real life last season, and he's going to face tougher hitters on average, and far more RHB (ISO 147) in all likelihood in TRHL. That plus random chance equals strange stuff some times.

That said, my general impression (with no real evidence to support it) is that outlier RP performances (and outlier pitching performances in general) don't translate well to DMB. I have no idea how the sim works under the hood, but I can imagine a scenario in which there's an artificial floor to how well a pitcher can pitch based on how the game handles the batter/pitcher interaction in determining results. This would also affect big outlier hitting performances, but we see fewer of those in practice because of PT limits, and how much harder it is to have an outlier hitter that's as far from the median as an outlier RP season can be.

I've also wondered if there's not some sort of random seeding of perfromance variance that occurs at the start of a season sometimes, given the relative over and under performance we occassionally see. There's no good reason for DMB to do that, though, and my guess is that we if we analyzed all the data for all the players we'd find outliers in both directions canceling each other out.

I'm not sure I understand you.

If he had 3 BS last year, 3 BS in <1 month should basically never happen in a historical sim.

Unless your second part is right and the engine is broken, or "picks on" certain players.

I've noticed this a couple of times where a great pitcher seems to suck all year, e.g. Felix Hernandez with a 4.25 ERA. If it was proven that the engine does single out guys to have deterministic bad years, I would not be happy at all.

I am 100% sure that diamondmind treats every at-bat as an isolated event.

Regarding Uehara, the chance of him doing much worse than reality is low. However, that someone will do much worse is a statistical inevitability.

Widings take 2 of 3 from the home squad, including a 19 run outburst in the final game.

You're effectively suggesting that the game should take into account what has already happened when determining what should happen in a given (or future) plate appearance, which would be a completely different game, and not really a simulation.

Really rare things happen all the time. If Uehara's true talent for batting average allowed vs RHB is .146, he should allow 7+ hits in 19 AB about 1.1% of the time. That sounds like a small number, but there have been over 17000 AB in this TRHL season already. That's over 900 distinct sets of 19 AB, and it would be weird if there weren't a significant number of outliers, it's just luck of the draw that Uehara's performance is one of them.

Just some examples:
Jose Altuve's current TRHL OPS is 1.033 vs .678 in RL.
Addison Reed's OPS against is .295, vs .603
Jake Arrieta's is .414 vs .718.

Crescent Beach takes two of three under deadline pressure.