TRHL Owners,

Series 16 has been completed.

Still seeking owner for abandoned Damage.

Reminder - I'm simming games for Indians and Damage; will not accept backup results.

Note - I'm now keeping an eye on the Aces since Keith is having laptop issues.

Results not submitted:
Whitecaps @ Damage (***)
Pale Hose @ Aces (***)
Breakers @ Isotopes

(*) - Backup results submitted
(**) - Notified in advance
(***) - Temporarily Commissioner controlled.

Automatic farmings due to overuse: None.

Transactions:
Clowns sign Todd Helton.
Chinook sign Jake Petricka, Evan Reed, and Matt Thornton, release Kyuki Fujikawa, Chris Gimenez, and Roger Bernadina.
Stogies sign Alex Presley, release Joey Terdoslavich.
Canons sign Kevin Jepsen, release Cody Ransom.
Snowshoe Hares sign Eduardo Escobar, release Don Kelly.

Injuries (> 3 days):
5/24 MUN Victorino 39

MP Issues: None observed.

Series 17 league file has been posted and the League File link on the website has been updated. Here's the link:
[www.trhl.org]

MPs ready for Series 17: Outlaws (use lineup #5 (Darvish) in game 1 when Darvish is the SP), FireDogs, Damage, Aces

Visiting team MP deadline is Tuesday, May 6th, 11 AM EDT. Series results are due Wednesday, May 7th, 11 PM EDT.

New MP

MP is good, but if Cosart starts use lineup #3.

Game 1: With Victorino on the DL for a month+, Matt Harvey decides to go fascist, striking out 10 over 7 1-hit innings, while replacement OF Domonic Brown hits a 2-run shot to key a 4-0 Marauders win.

Game 2: Marauders plate 3 runs in the first, then lean on Chris Archer until he leaves with a (short-term) injury in the 5th. The FireDogs score their first run of the series in the 6th, but by then it's already 5-1 and the Marauders go on to win 6-1.

Game 3: Andrew Cashner sees that the bullpen is still a bit gassed from the Forsyth debacle and decides to take over, throwing a CG shutout (meaning the FireDogs scored a grand total of 1 run in the series). Jason Castro gets the bonehead award of the series, however, as with a 6-0 lead in the top of the 9th he charges full speed into FireDogs C John Jaso, sending them both to the DL for 2+ weeks. And he didn't even score!

Marauders MP (with the Sanchez bros taking over at C) good to go for Series 18.

BDM MP should be good to go.

Please substitute Rios For Heyward in RF (batting 3rd) vs. Cueto and Arrieta

Game one is an improbable affair. Hares jump out to a 4-0 lead on homeruns by Goldschmidt and Quentin. But they fritter it away, two runs here, two runs there. Tied 4-4 at the end of seven, the Hares survive four innings as they are held hitless by Rivera and Uehara. David Wright opens the bottom of the eleventh with a triple. I don't know what the win probability is in the bottom of extra innings, man on third no out, but it has to be really, freakin' high. Computer manager walks the bases loaded. Nate Jones proceeds to strike out the side, Doumit, Lough, Santiago. If that weren't bad enough, in the top of the 12th, with two out and a man on, Rene Rivera, he of 0 real life homeruns and a 235/235/294 line against lefties, hits a two-run homerun against Jerry Blevins (314 slugging against lefties). BDM wins 4-2 in 12.

Don't cry for the Hares though, they get their revenge, blowing out the visitors 11-1 and 10-1 in the next two games, as Corbin and Shields get shelled. Nicasio had a no-hitter into the eighth in the rubber match.

Hares are scoring 5.2 runs a game despite their regulars only providing 91% of real life OPS. Trout and Wright are way under expectations (Trout and Kelly Johnson have the same OPS), with Adam Jones picking up the slack 348/367/674.

The real story of the Hares is the starting pitching, which is holding opponents to 92% of OPS, though some of that is explainable by matchups. The bullpen, on the other hand, is at 103%.

For comparison, Mattingly's performance has been, by and large, within expectations. The offense is 95%, starting pitching 104%, and relief pitching (even with the ballyhood disappointment of Uehara) is at 97%.

Starters should be Delgado, Morton, and Holland. Please let the computer manager choose the lineups.

Game One: Haren for Aces and Jaime Garcia each limit offenses to 2 runs apiece on 5 hits. Bullpens trade runs in ninth as Aces load them up with no outs in top ninth, but come away with single run and Terries tie in bottom on Cuddyer's single. Terriers walk off in bottom ten on Eric Chavez's two run HR. Terriers 5-3 win.

Game Two: Cuddyer goes deep twice driving in 6 while Kazmir goes strong 7 as Terriers cruise to 10-2 win.

Game Three: Scherzer holds Aces to 3 hits over 7 and Terriers scrape together two runs off Arroyo. Terrier pen work around 5 hits in last two to preserve 2-1 win for Scherzer's 9th win of season.

Gaelan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> The real story of the Hares is the starting
> pitching, which is holding opponents to 92% of
> OPS, though some of that is explainable by
> matchups. The bullpen, on the other hand, is at
> 103%.
>
> For comparison, Mattingly's performance has been,
> by and large, within expectations. The offense is
> 95%, starting pitching 104%, and relief pitching
> (even with the ballyhood disappointment of Uehara)
> is at 97%.

There are a bunch of reasons why this comparison won't really work to give you great information, but I think it's worth noting that just the park factor differences between the two NL divisions are huge. The Hares are playing in a pitcher's park in a division full of them (especially for RHB ). BDM is also in a pitcher's park, but in a division that tends much more to the hitter's side (especially if you like triples).

It works as a rough comparison (I didn't even weight the totals by plate appearances) since you can mentally account for park factors, and get rough guidelines.

So, for instance, it tells us that the Hares bullpen is doing much worse than Mattingly's bullpen.
And since the park factors are pretty neutral in Mattingly's case, it tells us the team is very much in range of expectations, and probably overperforming a little considering the increased talent level.

Park factors play a big role in the Hares outcomes and so the starting pitching isn't as good as it seems and the offense isn't as bad. The bullpen has underperformed though.

I think it is interesting because every team probably thinks they are underperforming (other than yours). This puts those underperformances in context.

You can't just look at the park factors in a vacuum, you've got to account for the fact that the TRHL NL is playing largely in pitcher's parks (relative to MLB neutral), and that those parks aren't distributed evenly across the TRHL NL (your division is much more pitcher friendly than mine). Relative to the league, this makes the hitter's parks stand out even more. Then there's the fact that we play an imbalanced schedule, and we've played mostly intra-division so far. Plus, at a rough estimate, the actual pitching in your division is tougher.

FWIW, weighted for simmed PAs and adjusted for park factors (and TRHL park distribution) and ignoring pitchers, I've got the Outlaws projected to OPS .839/.828 vs LHP/RHP and they're actually at .805/.830. To the extent the offense is outperforming (and given the league pitching imbalance, they probably aren't actually outperforming), it's luck on sequencing as their RC is lagging actual runs scored. For the pitchers the split is projected .696/.630 vs actual .645/.591, but the OPS projections don't account for defensive impact, which is significant for the Outlaws based on defensive personnel and park.

I've got the Hares offense projected at .880/.838 vs an actual .829/.782 using the same methodology, but a chunk of that under-performance is going to be matchup based. It will be interesting to see if it washes out by season end.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/06/2014 12:33PM by Bill Liming.

Given a fairly rough set of calculations, I get the Outlaws defense accounting for about 75% of the pitching out-performance. That probably undershoots a little, because the method I'm using apportions defensive PT based on PAs, so it'll under count defensive sub innings that marginal hitters are getting.

Mp ready for next series.

Attachment this tiem.

Pirates sweep.

Hamilton sweeps.

Hamilton MP is good to go for Series 18.

Whitecaps take 2 to push win streak to 12 before dropping the 3rd.